Panic market and its turning point

Good morning


Today, I would like to consider a little about the turning point of the panic market.

Do you think "currently" that the current virus panic will last forever?

In one TV program, "it will not converge for a while," "it will get worse," "the second wave will come in autumn," "I will not return to my normal life," "inbound will be ruined," etc.

Criticism rushed to the opinion that "Well, I'll recover soon." "I'm looking forward to drinking parties!" ! ! (I'm afraid-self-restraint police...)

It's been a while since I panicked.

I would also like to refrain from commenting on this panic situation (because OOOO is scared), but I would like to take a quick bird's-eye view and consider things.

About ten years ago, there was an era of super-strong yen.

Until that time, the dollar remained around 120 yen (a little weaker than it is now), and there were people who said that Japan would disappear when it fell below 100 yen.

However, within a few years, it entered the 70-yen range of 1 dollar (certainly the Democratic Party administration era), and Japan was fully used during the long-term economic recession.

It was at that time, but... certainly, the yen continued to rise, the 50 yen range for 1 dollar came soon, the arrival of the 1 dollar 1 yen age, and so on. It was.

Even so, all kinds of "Era-i" people, including great economists, conductors, and commentators, were repeatedly speaking on TV.

Since I know those days, I feel that the feeling of the atmosphere at that time and the current feeling of discomfort have not changed much.

After the appreciation of the yen, when I get lost in my way (especially with regard to investment), I act by anticipating a trend shift when the fear index of the media, what is called a tilt, or the peak of the situation occurs We are.

I don't recognize that the corona panic this time and the events so far are essentially the same, but I think that it will be one measure in looking into the future.


An economist said something interesting on Twitter, so I will introduce it here. (It is famous in the exchange industry)
"When extreme things happen, some people say something more extreme."

"In addition, if there is a criticism that this extreme is structural and will not be resolved, there is a tendency that it becomes the timing when the trend conversion of the event occurs."

How do you feel in light of current social events?

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